Russian-British historian Sergey Radchenko, a professor at Johns Hopkins University and Cold War expert, believes that efforts to align US President Donald Trump's 28-point plan with Ukraine's position have not brought about any real change on the ground.
According to Radchenko, the situation today is much the same as it was a month ago, when Trump was trying to broker a ceasefire by putting pressure on both sides. While the diplomatic tone may have softened, the reality of the conflict remains unchanged.
He mentions two possible scenarios: if Ukraine withdraws from Donbass, this would constitute a major victory for Russian President Vladimir Putin; if this does not happen, no rapid progress towards peace is expected. According to him, Trump's optimism is excessive, as there are no signs that Russia is ready to accept a new peace plan.
Radchenko emphasizes that the recent Russian bombing of Kiev is a clear message that Moscow has the capacity to continue the war. The goal, according to him, is to increase pressure on Ukraine to force it to accept Russian conditions. Putin, he adds, does not accept mediation and has not given up on maximum demands, while Ukraine has been forced to make concessions.
As for the role of the United States, Radchenko says it all depends on Trump's reaction if Putin rejects the plan and continues the war. He raises doubts about whether the US administration will continue its support for Ukraine or withdraw, leaving the burden to Europe and Kiev itself. In this scenario, there is a risk that pressure will increase on President Volodymyr Zelensky for further concessions.
The historian does not believe that the war will end soon. Even if the US and Ukraine agree on a solution, Russia, according to him, will present new demands, since Putin is not ready to make even minimal concessions.
Radchenko believes that Trump is aiming to end the war to present himself as the man who brought peace, without focusing deeply on the terms of the agreement. This, he says, puts Zelensky in a very difficult position, as Ukraine is pushed towards major compromises, while Russia is not giving up anything.
As for security guarantees, Radchenko warns that they are expected to be vague and non-binding for the US, as Trump does not want to risk a direct confrontation with a nuclear power like Russia.
Finally, he also criticizes the role of Europe, emphasizing that European countries have been sidelined from the negotiations, although they have a key role in sanctions and security guarantees. According to Radchenko, so far Europe has not been able to properly use the tools at its disposal.
[1:53 PM, 12/29/2025] Desada Metaj: On fb
Cold War expert Sergey Radchenko believes that Donald Trump's peace plan in Ukraine has not changed the reality of the war. According to him, Russia is not ready for concessions, while a Ukrainian withdrawal from Donbas would be a victory for Putin. The bombings in Kiev show that Moscow has the capacity to continue the war, while the pressure risks falling on Zelensky. Radchenko warns that the war will not end soon and that Europe is being left out of a process in which it should have played a key role.
