The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) Transition Report 2025–26: "An Old, But Braver World", which will be presented today at the Bank of Albania, focuses on emigration, which has become quite a concern in the country and does not seem to be stopping.
According to the report, Albania and Kosovo are the two countries that have experienced the highest population emigration in the post-communist space since 1990.
The report's graphs clearly show that Albania has lost about 40 percent of its 1990 population for the period 1990-2023, through net emigration alone, the second highest level in Europe and in the entire EBRD group of economies.
On the other hand, natural increase has been positive for most of the period and has compensated for about 27 percent of the 1990 population, which partially mitigates the shock, but not enough to neutralize the outflows.
Kosovo also lost 50% of its 1990 population over the same period, the highest level in Europe, although it had a lower natural increase than Albania at almost 40%.
The report says that this large demographic gap is translating into a significant economic drag on Albania. In the second chart of the report, the EBRD measures for the first time the annual impact of demographics on GDP growth per capita.
For Albania, the population contribution has been negative during 2000–2023, with about –0.2 percentage points of growth lost each year.
For the period 2024–2050, the impact is expected to deepen to –0.3 to –0.4 percentage points per year, making Albania one of the most exposed economies in the entire EBRD region. Even over the horizon 2050–2100, the signal remains negative, indicating that population aging and a shrinking labor force will continue to accompany the economy in the coming decades.
Labor shortages, the growing number of elderly people, and the weakening contributor base in social schemes are putting the economy under constant pressure.
The report suggests that in the absence of productivity growth, technological investment, human capital growth, and an improved business climate, mass emigration will continue to hold back economic growth for at least another three decades.
EBRD's Solovova: a quarter of Albanians with higher education have left, undertake active policies to bring back talent
Ekaterina Solovova, EBRD Resident Representative in Albania, stated in an interview with "Monitor" in early January that the latest EBRD Transition Report highlights that, among people with higher education in Albania, almost a quarter have left, while relatively few people with higher education have come from other countries.
This trend is observed in many emerging European economies in general and in the Western Balkans in particular, where only a few countries (such as Bosnia and Herzegovina) also have higher emigration rates of people with university education.
The experience of other countries, from Poland to Mexico, suggests that as conditions improve and incomes rise, the net migration balance gradually changes. Educated individuals return in greater numbers and skilled workers begin to seek to move to the country from other countries.
The challenge for policymakers is to create the right conditions for those who return with ideas, skills, and capital gained abroad, conditions that enable them to be as productive as possible.
Drawing on the experience of other countries, some practical measures to encourage the return of skilled people could include, for example, accelerated business registration for returning emigrants, tax breaks, and co-investment schemes, where the state or supporting institutions match their capital with additional contributions.
Equally important, if not more so, are measures aimed at further strengthening governance and improving the business climate in general.
How are educated people leaving?
The calculations of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) in the transition report show that about 23% of the educated from our country have already emigrated.
Albania has a high level of emigration of the educated population in 2023-2024 and much lower returns compared to 38 countries in the EBRD Region.
Bosnia, the Palestinian Authority and Tajikistan rank worse than Albania.
The data in the graph below shows that other transition countries have lower rates of brain drain and high returns.
Data shows that over 23% of educated Albanians had emigrated in 2023-2024, only 2-3% of them returned.
The study shows that the country is losing more professionals than it is attracting. Compared to other economies, Albania is positioned in the group of countries with high emigration of educated people, at levels much higher than the economies of Developing Europe, except for Bosnia, which, among other things, suffers from inter-ethnic conflicts and lack of political stability.
Meanwhile, the level of return of professionals remains minimal, much lower than even other small countries in Southeast Europe. In this way, Albania is failing to be an attractive destination for international talent, while it is constantly losing professionals to more developed countries.
Albania has a very large gap between the "outflow" and "inflow" of talent, one of the highest disparities among EBRD economies.
Other domestic studies have shown that Albanian professionals leave mainly for better job opportunities and much higher salaries in EU countries, a more stable career market, and more advanced conditions for research, innovation, and specialization.
Meanwhile, Albania remains unattractive to foreign professionals due to its small market, low competitive salaries, limited opportunities in the technology and research sectors, and an institutional and economic climate that is still considered fragile.
Demographic developments with brain drain are creating a vicious circle for the country that is further pushing emigration. The more professionals leave, the more difficult it becomes to modernize the economy and increase productivity.
On the other hand, the lack of an advanced economy makes the arrival of talents from abroad even less and encourages the departure of those who remain or are trained in the country./ Monitor.al
