For years, Kosovo relied on a united West to push forward its state-building and international integration.
Now, as the United States and the European Union increasingly diverge in their priorities and approaches, this support no longer appears as coordinated – confronting Kosovo with new political and strategic challenges.
Last week marked 27 years since the NATO intervention that stopped the violence of Serbian forces in Kosovo and forever changed the course of its history.
The decision, at the time, was coordinated by all allies and confirmed their commitment to stop the bloodshed and ethnic cleansing.
"Today, we and our 18 NATO allies agreed to do what we said we would do, what we must do to restore peace," said then-US President Bill Clinton on March 24, 1999.
Since then, Kosovo has consolidated its independence. With its challenges and successes, it has been internationally recognized, accepted into various organizations, and made important steps towards Euro-Atlantic integration – all thanks to the continued support of its Western allies.
But the path towards full membership in the EU and NATO remains long and closely linked to the West, which is different today – divided and unclear in its positions.
Tensions between the US on one side and Europe on the other have culminated in the war in Iran, but have, in fact, begun to rise since the beginning of the second term of US President Donald Trump, over a range of issues - from trade to his ambitions for Denmark's autonomous territory, Greenland.
In one of the strongest warnings made this week, Trump threatened to withdraw the US from NATO after European allies refused to send ships to unblock the Strait of Hormuz, near Iran.
Previously, he described the alliance as a "paper tiger" that does not support the US.
"I will say it publicly, we are very disappointed with NATO, because NATO has done nothing... The most important thing is that we come to their aid, but they never come to our aid," Trump said.
Although he had warned that he would address this topic in his address to the nation on April 1, he avoided it.
A day later, the co-chairs of the NATO Watch Group in the US Senate said that Congress will not allow Washington to withdraw from the Western military alliance.
On the other side of the Atlantic, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas acknowledged that the relationship between the two poles is "complicated."
In an interview with the Financial Times last month, she said the United States "wants to divide Europe."
"I think it's important for everyone to understand that the US has made it very clear that it wants to divide Europe. It doesn't like the European Union," Kallas said.
The statement came days after the Trump administration launched trade investigations against the European Union and several other countries, accusing them of unfair trade practices, and as a result, these countries could face new tariffs in the coming months.
"The foreign countries that have been deceiving us for years are ecstatic, they are very happy, and they are dancing in the streets, but they will not be dancing for much longer. Of that, I assure you," Trump said.
The threat of this rift feels distant, and Kosovo appears as a particularly fragile and exposed partner.
A recent study by the Group for Legal and Political Studies in Pristina identified five main risks that Kosovo faces from this situation – starting with increasing interference in Kosovo's internal affairs, higher vulnerability to external threats, erosion of the principle of sovereignty, strengthening of authoritarianism, and obstacles to the Euro-Atlantic integration process.
The author of the study, Alejandro Esteso Perez, explains to Radio Free Europe's Expose program that Kosovo is more vulnerable than other Western Balkan countries, due to the fact that its contested status places it in an unfavorable international position, preventing it from having full recognition, equal participation in international institutions, and a place in the United Nations.
“These five risks must be understood as a whole. They all contribute to Kosovo’s current and future position through different dimensions and to different degrees. There are risks within the country, the region and internationally, which are driven by different actors, but all of them affect Kosovo’s position in the short and medium term,” says Perez.
Toby Vogel, from the Council for Democratization Policy in Brussels, agrees that Kosovo's security and political future are increasingly vulnerable.
While concrete scenarios are often discussed – such as the withdrawal of American troops from NATO's peacekeeping mission in Kosovo, KFOR – Vogel sees the main risk elsewhere: insecurity.
"We live in a very difficult geopolitical environment: we not only have the war in Iran, but also the war in Ukraine. Also, Gaza remains unresolved, there is now a war in Lebanon and other similar issues. All of this distracts attention from a strategic analysis of the Balkans. And I regret to say that Kosovo has fallen almost to the bottom of the list of priorities for Europeans," Vogel tells Exposé.
Vogel warns that any potential change in the international presence in Kosovo could provoke more aggressive actions from various actors.
Ai nuk e përjashton as skenarin e incidenteve të lokalizuara, që mund të përshkallëzohen në një zinxhir reagimesh, duke theksuar se BE-ja nuk është e gatshme të përballet me Serbinë, e cila vazhdon të ketë pretendime territoriale ndaj Kosovës.
“Pra, në rast se SHBA-ja tërheq trupat nga KFOR-i, kjo mund të ketë pasoja shumë serioze. Jo në kuptimin e një rikthimi të menjëhershëm të dhunës, e lëre më të luftës… edhe pse, sinqerisht, në këto kohë dhe kushte kaotike, nuk do të përjashtoja asgjë”, thotë Vogel.
Me Aktin e Autorizimit të Mbrojtjes Kombëtare, Shtetet e Bashkuara u kanë bërë thirrje Kosovës dhe Serbisë të bëjnë përparim konkret drejt normalizimit të marrëdhënieve, dhe kanë theksuar nevojën për mbështetjen e një marrëveshjeje përfundimtare, të bazuar në njohjen reciproke.
Megjithatë, dy vendet nuk kanë zhvilluar asnjë takim të nivelit të lartë qysh në shtator të vitit 2023, ndonëse në BE kanë deklaruar gatishmërinë e tyre për ta ndërmjetësuar një të tillë.
Vogel vlerëson se qëllimi i deklaruar përfundimtar i dialogut – njohja reciproke – është zbehur ndjeshëm në Bruksel, dhe shton se BE-ja nuk ka treguar interes real për ta avancuar Kosovën në procesin e anëtarësimit, duke mbetur i vetmi vend në Ballkanin Perëndimor pa status kandidati.
Perez, në anën tjetër, thotë se është e vështirë të bëhen parashikime të sakta për dialogun me Serbinë, integrimin në BE dhe çështjet e sigurisë, për shkak të paparashikueshmërisë gjeopolitike në Uashington dhe paqëndrueshmërisë së zhvillimeve globale.
“Kriza aktuale energjetike, që ka pasuar sulmin e SHBA-së dhe Izraelit në Iran, është një zhvillim i ri dhe fatkeq, që në masë të madhe nuk ka mundur të parashikohet. Kjo situatë po e detyron Bashkimin Evropian që ta zhvendosë vëmendjen e tij diplomatike larg zgjerimit dhe Ballkanit Perëndimor, duke rrezikuar që Kosova të mbetet e neglizhuar”, thotë Perez.
I pyetur nëse Kosova duhet të zgjedhë anë mes SHBA-së dhe BE-së, Perez thekson se vendi duhet të tregojë koherencë mes vlerave demokratike që promovon dhe veprimeve të tij në politikën e jashtme.
Sipas tij, rreshtimi përkrah regjimeve problematike në iniciativa ndërkombëtare, krijon perceptimin e një nënshtrimi të pakushtëzuar, më shumë sesa të një sovraniteti të mirëfilltë, duke e zbehur imazhin e Kosovës si shtet me ambicie demokratizuese.
Kosova i është bashkuar Bordit të Paqes për Gazën – një nismë kjo e ndërmarrë nga presidenti Trump, ku përfshihen edhe vende me prirje autoritare, si Azerbajxhani dhe Uzbekistani.
Fuqitë kryesore evropiane – përfshirë Francën, Gjermaninë, Mbretërinë e Bashkuar dhe Spanjën – kanë refuzuar t’i bashkohen këtij projekti dhe kjo, sipas Vogelit, tregon se Kosova, në njëfarë mënyre, ka marrë anë.
“Kjo është diçka që BE-së nuk i pëlqen. Ajo nuk e sheh me sy të mirë që një vend potencial kandidat të rreshtohet aq hapur me SHBA-në në një veprim që shumëkush e konsideron si një organizim të mundshëm rival të Kombeve të Bashkuara”, thotë Vogel.
However, he sees the decision as a pragmatic rather than ideological move. Faced with the lack of a realistic prospect for EU membership, the rejection of recognition by five countries, and the bloc's often punitive stance, he says that Kosovo's joining the Peace Board serves as a way to stay close to the US and as a shield against sudden changes in international politics.
But, despite this, Vogel sees Kosovo's long-term future within Europe, mainly through pan-European structures and strong bilateral relations with key EU states.
For the authorities in Kosovo, these alliances with the West remain without alternative, but the lack of transatlantic coordination, according to analysts, has significantly limited their room for maneuver.
They emphasize that the country's future depends not only on domestic actions, but also to a large extent on decisions made in the main centers of power in the West. And that is where clarity is currently lacking./REL
