Turkey is drawing up contingency plans to prevent a massive wave of refugees from Iran in the event of the fall of the government in Tehran, officials with knowledge of closed-door meetings in the Turkish Grand National Assembly told Middle East Eye.
Senior Turkish Foreign Ministry officials briefed lawmakers this week on multiple scenarios involving Iran.
According to participants in the meeting, Ankara is ready to take "emergency measures" to manage any migratory pressure before it reaches Turkish soil.
One of the participants said that officials made clear reference to a "safe zone" on the Iranian side of the border as part of Turkey's preparations.
Another source said the term was not used directly, but confirmed that officials had given a clear signal of their intention to go beyond the usual security measures.
Increased border security
Turkey has already drastically increased security along its 560-kilometer border with Iran. The Defense Ministry announced earlier this month that a technologically enhanced barrier system had been installed, with hundreds of surveillance towers, drones, aerial surveillance vehicles and an articulated concrete wall.
According to officials, the border is now monitored 24 hours a day through integrated identification and surveillance systems.
During the same parliamentary meeting, Turkish officials reportedly said that around 4,000 people have been killed and 20,000 others injured in recent protests across Iran, which were sparked by rising inflation and the collapse of the rial.
Concerns about US military mobilization
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Ankara opposes any foreign interference in Iran and called on the United States to choose diplomacy. However, Washington is reportedly considering strikes against senior Iranian officials, according to a Gulf official quoted by Middle East Eye.
The US has recently deployed fighter jets, air defense systems and warships to the region. On Monday, the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln entered Middle Eastern waters, increasing concern in Ankara.
Refugee sensitivity and regional risks
Turkey remains extremely vulnerable to the possibility of new refugee flows, having hosted millions displaced by wars in Iraq and Syria. Officials estimate that a generalized conflict centered in Iran could push up to a million people toward the Turkish border.
The sources also said that Ankara is unlikely to accept refugees, except in cases of immediate humanitarian need, abandoning any "open door" policy.
However, the presence of at least 12 million Azerbaijani Turks in Iran could complicate the Turkish government's options if they appear en masse at the border.
