At the Pentagon on Wednesday morning, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth declared that the Iranians had been "humiliated and demoralized" over the past five weeks and that the United States would take control of the country's nuclear stockpile, by force or persuasion.
More restrained in tone, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine, told reporters that US forces would remain in the Middle East and were "ready, if ordered or if called upon, to resume combat operations with the same speed and precision that we have demonstrated over the last 38 days."
But just hours after the fragile ceasefire announced by President Trump on Tuesday went into effect, it became clear that, while resuming combat operations may remain a military option if negotiations fail, politically it is not a very favorable choice for Trump. And, with talks expected to begin in Islamabad on Friday, the Iranians know this.
If shipping through the Strait of Hormuz does resume, the price of Brent crude, which has already fallen about 14% to around $95 a barrel, could continue to fall. Fuel prices are also expected to fall, although no one expects them to return to where they were before the outbreak of war. The main stock market indexes rose by more than 2%.
These are the indicators of immediate success that Trump feels directly politically. And he knows that even if the two-week truce expires on April 21 without a final agreement on the long list of issues that have divided Washington and Tehran for decades, the political risk of a resumption of war is high, especially with midterm elections on the horizon and an upcoming meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
“What could prolong the ceasefire is the fact that there is now a kind of mutual assured destruction between the US and Iran,” said Suzanne Maloney, an Iran expert and vice president of the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution.
She added: “The US could resume military operations at any moment. But the Iranians have shown they can retaliate by threatening the Strait of Hormuz, with all the foreseeable consequences for the price of oil and fertilizers. And these are levers that the president is very well aware of.”
Most of Trump’s biggest mistakes in what he himself called his “excursion” into Iran were made early in the operation. He failed to consult with his closest allies before the February 28 attacks and was then surprised to find that they had no interest in supporting him.
Some of the objectives he proclaimed at the beginning of the conflict, including urging the Iranian people to rise up against the clerics and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, were quickly set aside.
The Gulf states had received no warning and found their most valuable assets, from oil platforms to desalination plants, virtually unprotected when Iranian missiles began to fall. Congress was bypassed, the MAGA base was divided, and even some of the most anti-Iran figures on Capitol Hill began to get nervous about the $1 billion-a-day bill and the fact that no administration official came forward to testify about the war or its objectives.
This damage has already been done. And all of this will weigh on Trump if he threatens to resume combat operations.
Hegseth also pointed to what may prove to be the biggest test of Trump's willingness to return to Iran.
Speaking to reporters at the Pentagon on Wednesday, he said one of the outcomes of the negotiations should be an agreement with Iran to give up 970 pounds of near-bomb-grade enriched uranium that the country has stored deep underground, mostly at the Isfahan nuclear facility.
“They’re either going to give it to us,” Hegseth said of the enriched material, “or we’re going to extract it ourselves.” According to current and former commanders, such a mission would require at least hundreds of U.S. special forces troops and would be associated with a high risk of casualties.
When asked specifically how the enriched uranium would be removed, Hegseth replied: “That’s something the president will resolve.”/ New York Times
