The death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei marks a turning point for Iran, an epochal change whose consequences cannot yet be predicted. However, experts consider it unlikely that the regime will collapse now. The system of power has been significantly consolidated in the nearly 50 years since the Islamic revolution.
Gerlinde Groitl, a political scientist at the University of Regensburg, also describes the Iranian regime as extremely resilient. “That leading figures can be eliminated has always been part of Khamenei’s political calculations,” she said in an interview with Tagesschau24. Reports from various sources say that Khamenei had already named candidates to succeed him in the event of his death last year.
According to the constitution, Khamenei's successor must be determined by the so-called Assembly of Experts, currently made up of 88 Shiite clerics. Several names were already circulating before Khamenei's death. They include the somewhat moderate former president Hassan Rohani, Khamenei's son Mojtaba, who is considered a member of the Revolutionary Guards, and Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the first leader of the revolution.
Until a successor is appointed, the duties of the head of state are assumed by a three-member body. It consists of the president of the state, Masoud Pezeshkian, the minister of justice, Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei, and a member of the Supervisory Council.
No one can predict the future with certainty.
However, among experts there is no doubt that a new religious leader is unlikely to enjoy the same authority as Khamenei. Among critics and reformers, the role of supreme religious leader has long been considered inappropriate for the times.
Currently, no one can say with certainty what the situation in Iran will be like in a week, a month or a year. According to political scientist Groitl, there is also the question of how much damage Iran can afford, because in addition to Khamenei, senior Revolutionary Guard officials were also killed in the attacks. However, she does not believe "that the regime will collapse immediately."
