Hungary faces crucial elections this weekend that could end the prime minister's 16-year rule and send shockwaves through his international alliance of right-wing populist parties.
The election is also seen as a key indicator for Hungary's future, amid speculation that, with Orban still in charge, the country could gradually move away from the European Union to move closer to Russia's orbit.
“The risks are great, especially in Europe,” Zsuzsanna Szelenyi, author of the book “Tainted Democracy: Viktor Orban and the Subversion of Hungary,” tells BIRN.
After years of blocking EU decisions, particularly on Ukraine, Brussels' patience with Hungary is running out.
"If Orban wins, it will be very difficult to consolidate relations with the EU. He could further escalate tensions and gradually prepare Hungary for an exit from the EU," predicts Szelenyi, a former member of Orban's Fidesz party.
However, many feel that change is in the air in Hungary.
The latest independent polls show Orban's rival, Peter Magyar, and his center-right Respect and Freedom party, Tisza, are several percentage points ahead of the ruling party.
Organizations close to Orban's Fidesz insist, however, that the government's victory is not in jeopardy, effectively dividing the country into two camps: some expect a big opposition victory – even a two-thirds supermajority – while others firmly believe in Orban staying in power.
These two beliefs will clash on Sunday, when experts expect a record turnout.
The race is a spectacular showdown between an experienced, but noticeably older and increasingly authoritarian Orbán, and a charismatic challenger, with rare social media skills and inexhaustible energy to travel across the country and reach even the most remote areas of Hungary.
Peter Magyar's campaign has pushed the old, mostly discredited opposition parties to the margins. The Hungarian Socialist Party decided not to participate in the elections, while the left-liberal Democratic Coalition is unlikely to cross the threshold to enter parliament.
The only other party that could enter parliament alongside Fidesz and Tisza is the far-right Mi Hazank, an anti-immigration movement that could position itself as a potential coalition partner for the government.
Hungary’s potential new prime minister, Peter Magyar, has enjoyed a meteoric rise since entering the political scene just two and a half years ago. A former member of Fidesz, he broke away from the party in early 2024 after a high-profile scandal in which then-president Katalin Novak and Magyar’s ex-wife, then-justice minister Judit Varga, pardoned a person involved in covering up pedophilia at a state-run children’s institution.
The scandal damaged Fidesz's credibility as a self-proclaimed defender of family values and led to the resignation of both women – but not of other senior figures.
In a sensational interview for the independent YouTube channel Partizan, Magyar openly distanced himself from Orbán and his government, criticizing the prime minister for corruption and for “running the country like a family business” – an apparent reference to Orbán’s son-in-law, Istvan Tiborcz, and his childhood friend Lorinc Meszaros, who have become enormously wealthy over the past decade.
At the time, few expected the relatively unknown former Fidesz member, with a conservative intellectual background, to pose a serious challenge to Orbán's entrenched system. However, in just two and a half years, the political landscape has changed significantly.
After securing around 30 percent of the vote in the 2024 European elections, Magyar is now leading in the polls. Focusing largely on everyday issues such as failing healthcare and education systems, he has resonated with many Hungarians, especially as the economy has stagnated in recent years.
The partial freeze of EU funds due to concerns about the rule of law and corruption has significantly impacted the economy, which has remained stagnant since the recession following the coronavirus pandemic.
“The Hungarian economy is really in bad shape, with no growth for three years in a row and a high deficit,” says Eva Palocz, director of the independent research institute Kopint-Tarki.
She attributes the crisis to the core of Fidesz's economic policies.
“Government-linked companies have been siphoning off resources and channeling public funds out of the economy, which was largely supported by EU funds until 2021. Since most of these funds were frozen, growth has stalled. The Hungarian economy simply cannot grow in this system,” she says.
According to research conducted by the independent news site Valaszonline.hu, around 11,000 billion forints (28 billion euros) have been channeled to government-linked companies, leaving shortfalls in essential sectors such as railways, hospitals and education. And citizens are starting to notice.
Palocz does not believe that a Fidesz government can correct economic policies.
“It's like when a car gets stuck in the mud and you keep pressing the gas – you just sink deeper. But no one will turn the wheel,” she says.
Ajo e quan gjithashtu investimin në industrinë e baterive një gabim të madh dhe simbol të megalomanisë së Orbanit, duke theksuar se ndërmarrjet e vogla dhe të mesme mund të rifitojnë konkurrueshmërinë vetëm pasi të shembet sistemi “feudal” i ndërtuar nga Fidesz-i në zonat rurale.
“Ne mund të jemi një qeveri kamikaze,” ka paralajmëruar Magyar gjatë një interviste, duke iu referuar ekonomisë së dobët, shoqërisë së polarizuar dhe institucioneve të kontrolluara nga Fidesz-i.
Pozicionet kyçe – si presidenca, prokuroria e përgjithshme dhe gjykatat e larta – do të mbeten në duart e besnikëve të Fidesz-it dhe janë të vështira për t’u ndryshuar pa një shumicë prej dy të tretash.
Një psherëtimë ndërkombëtare lehtësimi
Në nivel ndërkombëtar, një humbje e Orbanit qoftë edhe e ngushtë do të sillte një lehtësim në shumë kryeqytete europiane, në pritje të një Hungarie që nuk vepron më si një “kalë troje” i Rusisë brenda Bashkimit Europian.
“Ekziston një shpresë e fortë në kryeqytetet europiane dhe mes elitave europiane se ndryshimi është i mundshëm në Hungari,” thotë eksperti i politikës së jashtme, Szelenyi, duke paralajmëruar gjithsesi se edhe Tisza nuk do të jetë gjithmonë në linjën e Europës, veçanërisht për Ukrainën dhe emigracionin.
“[Por] ata pritet të veprojnë si një partner më i besueshëm dhe konstruktiv i Bashkimit Europian,” tha ai.
Në anën tjetër, aleanca e gjerë populiste e krahut të djathtë të Orbanit është dukshëm e alarmuar nga probabiliteti se mund të humbasë modelin e saj më të suksesshëm, i duartrokitur kryesisht nga aftësia për të qëndruar në pushtet për 16 vjet radhazi – një arritje e rrallë e politikës bashkohore.
Orban e ka shijuar rolin e tij qendror në arenën ndërkombëtare, përmes mikëpritjes së edicionit hungarez të US CPAC, një mbledhje e partive të Patriotëve të Europës në Parlamentin Europian, sikurse edhe mikpritjen e Sekretarit Amerikan të Shtetit, Marco Rubio apo të zv.presidentit të Shteteve të Bashkuara, JD Vance – të gjitha brenda një muaji.
“Humbja e Orbanit do të ishte një goditje e rëndë psikologjike për Patriotët, një lëvizje e gjithanshme, e cila mbahej e bashkuar nga Orbani dhe besimi se ai ishte i pamposhtur,” thotë Szelenyi.
Ndërkohë që partia më e madhe në mbështetjen e Patriotëve të Europës është Fronti Nacional i Francës, mbështetja kryesore financiare vjen nga Hungaria.
“Kjo linjë financiare gjaku mund të lëkundet gjatë viteve të ardhshme nëse Orbani humbet,” shtoi ai.
Mbështetësit e Orbanit i kushtojnë më pak vëmendje keqmenaxhimit ekonomik të 16 viteve të fundit. E llogaritur dikur mes anëtarëve më të fortë të rinj të Bashkimit Europian, Hungaria gjendet tashmë mbrapa në disa indikatorë ekonomikë, ndërkohë që nuk i kapitalizon mundësitë e ofruara nga BE.
“Unë besoj se këto parti populiste i kushtojnë pak vëmendje ekonomisë; ato janë plot me slogane politike, por shumë rrallë merren me përgjegjësinë e qeverisë,” arsyeton Palocz.
For Orbán to concede defeat, Magyar will need a clear victory. While last-minute vote buying and manipulation are expected, large-scale electoral fraud seems unlikely.
Sunday will undoubtedly be a long day, with preliminary results coming in late and possible recounts expected in certain contested districts. Out-of-state votes could push the final result into midweek.
If Tisza wins by a narrow margin – the most likely scenario – Fidesz is expected to embrace an aggressive opposition strategy in an attempt to undermine the new government, which is expected to implement difficult and potentially unpopular economic reforms.
“I don’t see Orban voluntarily giving up politics,” says Szelenyi.
"The risks are very high, especially financially and in particular for the Orban family," he added.
But she also sees members of the Fidesz party eager to take control of the party. If Orban wins the election, the disillusionment of Hungarian society could worsen further, with a new wave of exodus of young Hungarians from the country expected.
“This could also bring about a collapse of the economy,” warns economist Eva Palocz, referring to investors and financial agencies who are most anticipating regime change.
Hope is on the horizon, but for many people inside and outside Hungary – it is still difficult to imagine a Hungary without Orban.
