The race has been a showdown between the experienced, but noticeably older and increasingly authoritarian Orban, and the rock star-like figure of Magyar with a rare talent for social media and boundless energy to travel to the most remote parts of Hungary.
Hungary faces crucial elections this weekend that could end the prime minister's 16-year rule and send shockwaves through his international alliance of right-wing populist parties.
The election is also seen as a key indicator for Hungary's future, amid speculation that, with Orban still in charge, the country could gradually move away from the European Union to move closer to Russia's orbit.
“The risks are great, especially in Europe,” Zsuzsanna Szelenyi, author of the book “Tainted Democracy: Viktor Orban and the Subversion of Hungary,” tells BIRN.
After years of blocking EU decisions, particularly on Ukraine, Brussels' patience with Hungary is running out.
"If Orban wins, it will be very difficult to consolidate relations with the EU. He could further escalate tensions and gradually prepare Hungary for an exit from the EU," predicts Szelenyi, a former member of Orban's Fidesz party.
However, many feel that change is in the air in Hungary.
The latest independent polls show Orban's rival, Peter Magyar, and his center-right Respect and Freedom party, Tisza, are several percentage points ahead of the ruling party.
Organizations close to Orban's Fidesz insist, however, that the government's victory is not in jeopardy, effectively dividing the country into two camps: some expect a big opposition victory – even a two-thirds supermajority – while others firmly believe in Orban staying in power.
These two beliefs will clash on Sunday, when experts expect a record turnout.
Hungarian confrontation
The race is a spectacular showdown between an experienced, but noticeably older and increasingly authoritarian Orbán, and a charismatic challenger, with rare social media skills and inexhaustible energy to travel across the country and reach even the most remote areas of Hungary.
Peter Magyar's campaign has pushed the old, mostly discredited opposition parties to the margins. The Hungarian Socialist Party decided not to participate in the elections, while the left-liberal Democratic Coalition is unlikely to cross the threshold to enter parliament.
The only other party that could enter parliament alongside Fidesz and Tisza is the far-right Mi Hazank, an anti-immigration movement that could position itself as a potential coalition partner for the government.
Hungary’s potential new prime minister, Peter Magyar, has enjoyed a meteoric rise since entering the political scene just two and a half years ago. A former member of Fidesz, he broke away from the party in early 2024 after a high-profile scandal in which then-president Katalin Novak and Magyar’s ex-wife, then-justice minister Judit Varga, pardoned a person involved in covering up pedophilia at a state-run children’s institution.
The scandal damaged Fidesz's credibility as a self-proclaimed defender of family values and led to the resignation of both women – but not of other senior figures.
In a sensational interview for the independent YouTube channel Partizan, Magyar openly distanced himself from Orbán and his government, criticizing the prime minister for corruption and for “running the country like a family business” – an apparent reference to Orbán’s son-in-law, Istvan Tiborcz, and his childhood friend Lorinc Meszaros, who have become enormously wealthy over the past decade.
At the time, few expected the relatively unknown former Fidesz member, with a conservative intellectual background, to pose a serious challenge to Orbán's entrenched system. However, in just two and a half years, the political landscape has changed significantly.
It's the economy, stupid.
After securing around 30 percent of the vote in the 2024 European elections, Magyar is now leading in the polls. Focusing largely on everyday issues such as failing healthcare and education systems, he has resonated with many Hungarians, especially as the economy has stagnated in recent years.
The partial freeze of EU funds due to concerns about the rule of law and corruption has significantly impacted the economy, which has remained stagnant since the recession following the coronavirus pandemic.
“The Hungarian economy is really in bad shape, with no growth for three years in a row and a high deficit,” says Eva Palocz, director of the independent research institute Kopint-Tarki.
She attributes the crisis to the core of Fidesz's economic policies.
“Government-linked companies have been siphoning off resources and channeling public funds out of the economy, which was largely supported by EU funds until 2021. Since most of these funds were frozen, growth has stalled. The Hungarian economy simply cannot grow in this system,” she says.
According to research conducted by the independent news site Valaszonline.hu, around 11,000 billion forints (28 billion euros) have been channeled to government-linked companies, leaving shortfalls in essential sectors such as railways, hospitals and education. And citizens are starting to notice.
Palocz does not believe that a Fidesz government can correct economic policies.
“It's like when a car gets stuck in the mud and you keep pressing the gas – you just sink deeper. But no one will turn the wheel,” she says.
She also calls the investment in the battery industry a big mistake and a symbol of Orbán's megalomania, emphasizing that small and medium-sized enterprises can regain competitiveness only after the "feudal" system built by Fidesz in rural areas collapses.
“We could be a kamikaze government,” Magyar warned during an interview, referring to the weak economy, polarized society and institutions controlled by Fidesz.
Key positions – such as the presidency, the general prosecutor's office and the high courts – will remain in the hands of Fidesz loyalists and are difficult to change without a two-thirds majority.
An international sigh of relief
At the international level, a defeat for Orban, even a narrow one, would bring relief to many European capitals, in anticipation of a Hungary that no longer acts as a "pawn" for Russia within the European Union.
“There is a strong hope in European capitals and among European elites that change is possible in Hungary,” says foreign policy expert Szelenyi, warning, however, that even Tisza will not always be on Europe's side, especially on Ukraine and immigration.
“[But] they are expected to act as a more reliable and constructive partner of the European Union,” he said.
On the other hand, Orban's broad right-wing populist alliance is clearly alarmed by the probability that it could lose its most successful model, applauded largely for its ability to stay in power for 16 consecutive years – a rare feat in contemporary politics.
Orban has enjoyed his central role on the international stage, hosting the Hungarian edition of the US CPAC, a gathering of the Patriots of Europe parties in the European Parliament, as well as hosting US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and US Vice President JD Vance – all within the space of a month.
“Losing Orban would be a severe psychological blow to the Patriots, a broad-based movement that was held together by Orban and the belief that he was invincible,” says Szelenyi.
While the largest party in support of the Patriots of Europe is France's National Front, the main financial support comes from Hungary.
“This financial bloodline could be shaken over the coming years if Orban loses,” he added.
Orban's supporters pay less attention to the economic mismanagement of the past 16 years. Once considered among the strongest new members of the European Union, Hungary now lags behind in several economic indicators, while failing to capitalize on the opportunities offered by the EU.
“I believe that these populist parties pay little attention to the economy; they are full of political slogans, but very rarely deal with the responsibility of government,” Palocz reasons.
For Orbán to concede defeat, Magyar will need a clear victory. While last-minute vote buying and manipulation are expected, large-scale electoral fraud seems unlikely.
Sunday will undoubtedly be a long day, with preliminary results coming in late and possible recounts expected in certain contested districts. Out-of-state votes could push the final result into midweek.
If Tisza wins by a narrow margin – the most likely scenario – Fidesz is expected to embrace an aggressive opposition strategy in an attempt to undermine the new government, which is expected to implement difficult and potentially unpopular economic reforms.
“I don’t see Orban voluntarily giving up politics,” says Szelenyi.
"The risks are very high, especially financially and in particular for the Orban family," he added.
But she also sees members of the Fidesz party eager to take control of the party. If Orban wins the election, the disillusionment of Hungarian society could worsen further, with a new wave of exodus of young Hungarians from the country expected.
“This could also bring about a collapse of the economy,” warns economist Eva Palocz, referring to investors and financial agencies who are most anticipating regime change.
Hope is on the horizon, but for many people inside and outside Hungary – it is still difficult to imagine a Hungary without Orban. /BIRN/
