A classified CIA assessment has warned that deepening political, economic and social divisions could push Israel toward civil war or state collapse, according to a report released Monday.
The assessment, titled “Breaking Inside,” was prepared in August by the CIA’s Red Cell, a unit tasked with challenging the intelligence community’s prevailing assumptions. The report was published by Drop Site News, which, citing two U.S. sources familiar with its contents, reported on the concerns raised by the U.S. agency. The CIA did not respond to a request for comment.
According to the assessment, Israel is facing an increasingly volatile combination of pressures ahead of the October 27 elections. Key factors include economic tensions, rising military spending, anger over exemptions from compulsory military service for ultra-Orthodox Jews, and escalating violence by Israeli settlers in the occupied West Bank.
The report also identifies Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's efforts to stay in power as another significant source of political and constitutional tensions in the country.
Years of war in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran have deepened existing divisions within Israeli society. According to the report, the return of soldiers from long periods of combat is in some cases accompanied by severe psychological consequences, adding to the pressure on a society already gripped by tensions.
One of the most sensitive issues remains military conscription. The dispute over the exclusion of ultra-Orthodox men from military service has become one of the strongest lines of internal conflict, especially after repeated mobilizations of reservists during the war years.
At the same time, the CIA assessment also considers growing international isolation as a factor that could worsen the domestic situation. The report specifically mentions the decline in American support, seeing this development as another element that could increase pressure on Israel's political and social system.
In this context, the CIA warns that the combination of political, economic, military and social crises could create a dangerous situation for the country's stability, especially if existing divisions continue to deepen.
