Russia's security guarantee to Ukraine is a complex and controversial concept related to efforts to achieve a lasting peace between the two countries. These guarantees imply political, military, and legal commitments that Russia will undertake (or is alleged to undertake) to ensure that it will no longer threaten Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
What does a "security guarantee" from Russia actually mean?
Cessation of hostilities and respect for borders
Russia pledges not to attack Ukraine again.
To recognize the borders of Ukraine, according to international law.
Withdrawal from occupied territories
One possible condition for peace would be withdrawal from territories like Donbas or Crimea – although this is currently highly controversial and difficult to achieve.
Signing of international agreements
A treaty or agreement guaranteeing Ukraine's neutrality, or its security with the participation of third countries (e.g., the US, EU, China, etc.).
Prohibition of interference in the internal politics of Ukraine
Russia should commit to no longer destabilizing Ukraine politically or economically, as it has done in the past.
Have there ever been such guarantees before?
Yes. The most popular is:
???? Budapest Memorandum (1994) – where Russia, the US and the UK guaranteed the security and territorial integrity of Ukraine in exchange for the surrender of the nuclear arsenal that Ukraine inherited from the Soviet Union.
➡️ This memorandum was violated by Russia in 2014, when it annexed Crimea and began supporting separatists in eastern Ukraine.
Why is it hard to trust a "security guarantee" from Russia today?
Because Russia has broken previous guarantees (like the Budapest Memorandum).
There is a lack of international trust in Russian commitments without oversight or sanctions.
Russia continues to dispute Ukraine's independence and Western orientation.
How could it be a real guarantee?
A valid security guarantee for Ukraine would require international guarantees, with the participation of:
US
NATO or the EU
Neutral powers (like China or the UN)
and would include monitoring, enforcement mechanisms and clear consequences in case of violations.
In conclusion:
The “security guarantee from Russia” is a central point of the peace negotiations, but its credibility is very low without international support and strong implementation mechanisms.
