The crisis in the Middle East is developing at a pace that is increasing uncertainty for governments, financial markets and citizens around the world. The escalating conflict between the US and Iran is expected to last for several weeks, while military operations are aimed at significantly weakening Tehran's ability to project its military power beyond its borders.
According to an analysis published by CNN, the military campaign includes attacks on missile systems, drone production facilities, naval and air forces, command structures and remaining elements of Iran's nuclear program. At the same time, tensions in the Persian Gulf region and the Strait of Hormuz are directly affecting global energy markets and the world economy.
Baseline scenario: Iran like Iraq?
The most likely scenario, with a probability of about 60%, predicts that the Donald Trump administration will give the US armed forces time to meet the established military objectives.
In this case, the US and its allies would be able to severely damage Iran's military capabilities outside its territory and the country's defense industry, but without collapsing the political structures of the regime in Tehran. The military campaign would end after achieving its main goal, without aiming for regime change.
After the operations were completed, international sanctions against Iran would continue to remain in force, especially for its nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
According to the analysis, such a situation could resemble Iraq in the 1990s: a militarily weakened country, under international pressure and with constant military monitoring by the US and its allies.
Worst-case scenario: A more aggressive Iran and a more unstable region
The second scenario, with a probability of about 30%, predicts that economic pressures and market shocks could force Washington to end the military operation prematurely.
In this case, Iran could emerge from the conflict with its key power structures intact and the ability to rebuild its military and nuclear capabilities relatively quickly. Such a development would make the Middle East even more unstable.
The Gulf states would remain exposed to the threat of Iranian missiles and drones, while the US would be forced to increase its military presence and defenses in the region. At the same time, the economic cost of activities in the region – from securing maritime transport to international investment – would increase significantly, affecting global economic stability.
The most optimistic scenario: A “new Iran”
The most optimistic scenario, with a probability of about 10%, predicts that military pressure could weaken the Iranian regime and encourage new mass protests within the country. However, experts consider this development unlikely in the short term, especially after the violent suppression of protests in recent months. Overthrowing the regime would require either an organized and armed domestic opposition, or a broader military intervention, including ground forces.
According to the analysis, the current operation – described by the Pentagon and US military leaders – has as its main goal the limitation of Iran’s power outside its borders and not regime change in Tehran.
A combination of scenarios is also possible.
The analysis emphasizes that these three scenarios are not mutually exclusive and developments may include elements of each of them. Meanwhile, the new political leadership in Iran, linked to the figure of Mojtaba Khamenei and the structures of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, is expected to play an important role in how the crisis will evolve.
In the long term, experts predict that American involvement in the Iranian issue – through military deterrence, sanctions and diplomatic pressure – is not expected to end with the closure of the current crisis.
The most likely outcome, according to the analysis, is a weaker and more limited Iran in its military power, but with new and still unclear balances in the Middle East, while uncertainty about future developments is expected to continue for years.
