US President Donald Trump has returned to the idea of regime change in Iran, six months after launching a war against Tehran, while diplomacy between the two countries has reached a deadlock and traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains below pre-war levels.
According to CNN, Trump has been privately asking members of his national security team the same question for months: Why aren't the Iranian people rising up against the country's leadership?
At the beginning of the conflict, the US president seemed to believe that mass protests would erupt in Tehran. This belief, according to people familiar with the matter, was reinforced by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who argued that a powerful wave of attacks would trigger the regime's downfall.
However, other US officials were more skeptical. They had seen intelligence assessments suggesting that an immediate uprising in Iran was unlikely. The issue was reportedly discussed intensely within the US administration before the attacks were launched.
When the war began in late February, Trump urged the Iranians to take control of the country. “This may be your only chance for generations,” he said in a video released the night the conflict began.
But that idea faded over the months, as the US administration's focus shifted to negotiations with Tehran and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. In June, Trump declared that he had never been interested in regime change in Iran and argued that US efforts to overthrow foreign governments "never work."
However, according to CNN, Trump continued to privately wonder why his calls for political change were not finding a response from the Iranian people.
Now, with talks stalled and economic and military pressure on Tehran increasing, the US president appears to be returning to the idea of internal change in Iran.
On Tuesday evening, Trump wrote on his social network that he was not trying to force Iran to sit at the negotiating table, claiming that the US position was more favorable due to control over the Strait of Hormuz and the Iranian economic crisis.
He then publicly posed the question he had been privately discussing for months: “When will the Iranian people rise up and fight?”
A day later, Trump said he had asked the question knowing that Iranians were facing harsh repression. "They're getting shot," the US president declared, adding that this was why the protests were not erupting on a large scale.
Meanwhile, pressure on Iran is intensifying. US sanctions and blockades have hit the country's economy hard, with the rial falling to record lows and oil exports sharply reduced. According to Reuters, the economic situation is increasing the risk of renewed protests, but so far there are no signs that the Iranian regime is preparing to hand over power.
