Lamine Yamal is seen as one of the main favorites to win the Ballon d'Or, ahead of Bayern Munich striker Harry Kane, according to some historical indicators related to the winners of this prestigious award. The Barcelona star is aiming to become the youngest footballer in history to win the trophy, while the award ceremony is expected to be held in London on October 26.
Yamal comes off a successful season with Barcelona, where he won two domestic trophies, while also achieving another major success with Spain. Meanwhile, Harry Kane is looking to become the first Englishman to win the Ballon d'Or since Michael Owen in 2001. The Bayern Munich striker scored 73 goals in 65 games between August 2025 and July 2026, as well as winning the Bundesliga.
According to historical data cited in the article, since 2000, 64 percent of Ballon d'Or winners have played in La Liga, 76 percent have been strikers, and 80 percent have won a major trophy, such as a domestic league title, the Champions League, or the World Cup. Of the 30 players nominated for this year's award, Yamal is reportedly the only one to meet all three criteria, while Kane meets two of them.
The history of the award shows that major trophies have often played a role in determining the winner, even though the judging is largely based on individual performances. Ousmane Dembele won the 2025 edition after a successful season with Paris Saint-Germain, while Lionel Messi triumphed in 2023 after winning the World Cup with Argentina. These examples show the importance of collective successes in the race for football's most coveted individual award.
However, historical indicators do not guarantee the final outcome. The race between Yamal and Kane is expected to depend on the evaluation of individual performances, the impact on their respective teams, and the successes achieved during the evaluation period.
