US President Donald Trump decided to launch the February offensive against Iran, despite warnings from senior US intelligence, administration and military leaders that such a conflict could cause a global energy crisis and bring to power an even more radical leadership in Tehran.
According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, based on people familiar with the meetings held before the war, then-Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard warned Trump that the assassination of Iran's supreme leader could lead to the rise to power of a more radical successor and cause the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
This waterway is one of the most important arteries of global energy trade, as a significant portion of the world's oil and gas is transported through it.
US Vice President JD Vance also supported a more cautious approach, calling for diplomatic negotiations to take precedence over military conflict. According to him, an agreement would be less costly than a war with consequences that would be difficult to manage.
Meanwhile, senior military leaders, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and General Dan Caine, had briefed Trump on the possibility of a major strike on Iran. However, other officials raised concerns about ammunition stocks and the risk of the US military facing an overstretched force.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump dismissed these concerns and believed that the US military could handle any problems that might arise during the conflict.
The report also claims that the US president was initially pleased with the start of the war. He was reportedly at Mar-a-Lago for a fundraising event when he was informed of the assassination of then-Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
However, the situation changed as oil prices rose and the conflict began to stall. The leaders of Saudi Arabia and Qatar pressured the White House to seek a diplomatic solution, while domestic polls showed that about 80 percent of Americans supported a deal to end the war.
These developments, along with concerns among some Republicans about the political consequences of a prolonged war in the November congressional elections, influenced Trump's decision to pursue the temporary ceasefire in June.
Meanwhile, the 60-day deadline for nuclear negotiations expired on August 17 without a final agreement. The US administration has since returned to Operation Economic Outcast, an economic pressure campaign aimed at weakening the Iranian government through sanctions and an ongoing naval blockade.
