BBC – Images of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and US President Donald Trump, in front of a warship with a US fighter jet in the sky.
For the past two months, the US military has been building up a force of warships, fighter jets, bombers, marines, drones and spy planes in the Caribbean Sea. It is the largest deployment there in decades.
B-52 long-range bombers have conducted "bombing demonstration strikes" off the coast of Venezuela. Trump has authorized the deployment of the CIA to Venezuela, and the world's largest aircraft carrier is being sent to the region.
The US says it has killed dozens of people in attacks on small boats from Venezuela, which it claims are transporting "drugs" and "narco-terrorists", without providing evidence or details about those on board.
These attacks have drawn condemnation in the region and experts have questioned their legality. They are being presented by the US as a war on drug trafficking, but all signs point to them actually being a campaign of intimidation aimed at removing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro from power.
"This is about regime change. They probably won't invade, the hope is that this is about signaling," says Dr. Christopher Sabatini, senior fellow for Latin America at the Chatham House think tank.
He argues that the military buildup is a show of force intended to "stir fear" into the hearts of the Venezuelan military and Maduro's inner circle so that they will act against him.
BBC Verify has been monitoring public information about the location of US ships and aircraft in the region – along with satellite imagery and images from social media – to build a picture of the location of Trump's forces.
The location has changed over time, so we have been monitoring the region regularly for updates.
As of October 23, we identified 10 US military vessels in the region, including guided missile destroyers, amphibious assault ships, and offshore supply tankers.
A $50 million bounty for testing the loyalty of the inner circle
It's no secret that the US administration, especially Secretary of State Marco Rubio, would like to see Maduro removed.
Earlier this year, he told Fox News that Maduro was "a terrible dictator" and when asked if he wanted Maduro to go, he added: "We will work on that policy."
But even for outspoken critics of Maduro like Rubio, it is difficult to openly call for regime change with military support - something the Venezuelan opposition has long called for.
Donald Trump ran against regime change in 2016, promising to "stop the race to overthrow foreign regimes," and has more recently condemned engagement in "forever wars."
The US does not recognize Maduro as president of Venezuela. The result of the last election in 2024 was disputed and the way the election was conducted was widely rejected internationally, as well as by the opposition in Venezuela, as never being free or fair.
The US has increased the reward for information leading to Maduro's arrest to $50 million, an incentive for those within his inner circle to hand him over. But that has not led to his removal.
Venezuelan law professor and senior associate at the national security think tank CSIS, Jose Ignacio Hernández, says $50 million is "nothing" to Venezuela's elite.
There's a lot of money to be made through corruption within an oil-rich country like Venezuela. Former Treasury chief Alejandro Andrade earned $1 billion in bribes before being convicted.
Many analysts agree that the Venezuelan military would be key to any regime change, but to turn the tide against Maduro, they would also want promises of immunity from prosecution.
Hernández adds: "They will think, one way or another, I am also involved in criminal activities."
Michael Albertus, a political science professor at the University of Chicago who publishes widely on Latin America, is not convinced that even a $500 million bounty would convince Maduro's inner circle to hand him over.
"Authoritarian leaders are always suspicious of their own inner circle, and because of this, they create mechanisms to monitor and ensure loyalty," he said.
Economic sanctions against Venezuela have worsened the already deep economic crisis, but have failed to convince senior figures to turn against their president.
Why this might not just be about drugs
Donald Trump has declared that this is a war against drug traffickers and said that a ship the US struck on October 16 was "filled mostly with fentanyl."
But fentanyl is primarily produced in Mexico – not South America – and enters the US through the southern border.
"It's not about drugs," says Dr. Sabatini. "But he has adopted the language of the Venezuelan opposition that this is not just a dictatorship – it's a criminal regime."
Since 2020, the US Department of Justice has accused President Maduro of leading a drug trafficking and narco-terrorism organization, which he denies. Trump has said he authorized the CIA to conduct covert operations in Venezuela in part because of the "drugs coming in" from Venezuela.
Venezuela does not produce large quantities of cocaine – most of it is produced in Colombia, Peru and Bolivia. Some is trafficked through Venezuela, which its government claims to be fighting.
A US DEA report from 2025 says that 84% of cocaine seized in the US comes from Colombia and mentions other countries, but not Venezuela.
The first seven strikes were carried out in the Caribbean, which is not a major maritime route for drug trafficking compared to the Pacific Ocean, where the later strikes were carried out.
Venezuelan fishermen in fear after US attacks
The US has not provided details of the evidence that Maduro runs a drug trafficking organization. Maduro has repeatedly denied the allegations and in turn accuses the US of imperialism and worsening the country's economic crisis through sanctions.
There are known cases of people close to him being prosecuted.
In 2016, a federal court in New York convicted his wife's two nieces of conspiring to import cocaine into the U.S. The case said they planned to use some of the money to fund his wife's political campaign. They were later released in a prisoner exchange deal with the U.S.
Strengthening the American presence at sea and in the air
The Pentagon has ordered the deployment of a group of carrier ships to the region.
It includes the USS Gerald R Ford, the largest aircraft carrier in the world.
In addition to the American ships we tracked around Puerto Rico – where the US has a military base – satellite images also showed two ships about 75 miles (123 km) east of Trinidad and Tobago.
One was a guided-missile cruiser, the USS Lake Erie.
The other appeared to be the MV Ocean Trader according to Bradley Martin, a former captain in the US Navy and now a senior policy researcher at the RAND Corp.
This is a cargo ship converted to support special forces missions while disguising itself as commercial traffic. It could accommodate drones, helicopters, and small boats.
There is a wide range of missions it can support, including surveillance to prepare for attacks. But Martin stresses that its presence "does not necessarily mean that these activities are being carried out or are planned."
Military analysts have emphasized that interdicting drugs at sea does not require a force as large as the current American one.
The US has also strengthened its air presence in the region – BBC Verify has identified several US military aircraft in Puerto Rico.
What the CIA can do inside Venezuela
When asked if the CIA had received authorization to eliminate Maduro, Donald Trump dodged the question and said it would be "ridiculous" to answer.
He also said the US is "looking at the ground now," referring to possible military operations on Venezuelan soil.
The CIA is viewed with great suspicion by many in Latin America due to a long history of covert interventions, regime change attempts, and support for past right-wing military dictatorships, particularly in Chile and Brazil.
Ned Price, deputy US representative to the United Nations and formerly a senior CIA analyst and senior State Department adviser, said the CIA's covert actions can take "many forms."
"They could be information operations. They could be sabotage operations. They could finance opposition parties. They could go as far as toppling a regime. There are many options between the minimum and maximum options."
This could include using agents to target suspected drug traffickers inside Venezuela. According to the US itself, this could include Maduro.
Dr. Sabatini says that since Venezuela is not a major drug production hub, there are no cocaine or fentanyl labs to "destroy," but there are airstrips or ports that the U.S. could target.
"If he's going to be aggressive, he could send a missile to a military barracks. There's pretty good intelligence that some sectors of the military are involved in cocaine trafficking."
Or it could be a "catch and take" situation, where they try to capture Maduro or some of his vice presidents and bring them to justice in the US.
The big question, he argues, is how long Trump is willing to keep so many American assets located in the Caribbean.
If the main purpose of this military reinforcement is to threaten Maduro, it is not clear whether this is enough to prompt defections from his inner circle.
Whether this amounts to a real attempt to remove the Maduro regime by force, Professor Albertus thinks it is difficult to know.
