Israel is voting today in one of the most crucial elections in its recent history, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu facing the real possibility of losing power after years dominated by wars, political crises and internal conflicts. Recent polls favor his opponents, but Israel's parliamentary system could produce a paradoxical result: the opposition taking more seats in parliament without being able to form a government.
Polling stations opened on Tuesday morning and are expected to close at 10:00 p.m. local time. The first exit polls will be released later, with the final count likely to take several days.
In these elections, Israelis are voting for the 120 members of the Knesset, the country's parliament. To form a government, the support of at least 61 members is needed, a threshold that, according to polls, neither Netanyahu nor his opponents are guaranteed.
Netanyahu risks defeat, but opposition not sure of victory
The latest poll by Israeli television Channel 12 predicted only 50 seats for Netanyahu's bloc, while opposition parties could secure 56 seats. Arab parties were counted separately and could play a decisive role in parliamentary balances.
Netanyahu's Likud party was projected to win only 19 seats out of 32 in the outgoing parliament. Former army chief Gadi Eizenkot's Yashar party came in first with 22 seats, while former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett was projected to secure 14 seats with his political force.
These figures indicate Netanyahu's weakening, but not necessarily his removal from power. The opposition remains divided, and some of its leaders have ruled out the possibility of forming a government with Arab parties. This makes it difficult to achieve a majority of 61 MPs, even if the prime minister's opposing parties win more votes and seats.
The first elections after October 7 and the wars that changed Israel
The vote is taking place in a completely different climate than the 2022 elections. Hamas attacks on October 7, 2023, the devastating war in Gaza, conflicts in the region, and the military clash with Iran have fundamentally changed the Israeli political debate.
For Netanyahu, the elections are an attempt to secure another term after a period that has shaken the country. For his opponents, they represent an opportunity to end a government they accuse of security failures, societal fragmentation and institutional weakness.
One of the main opposition figures is Gadi Eisenkot, the former chief of staff of the Israeli army, who has emerged as Netanyahu's strongest challenger in recent polls. Former prime minister Naftali Bennett is also in the race, while the radical right continues to support the incumbent.
High turnout and tensions during voting
Early data show an unusual mobilization of voters. According to the Central Election Commission, 31.5% of the electorate had voted by noon, the highest level of participation at this time since 1977.
Meanwhile, a suspected incident involving Democratic Party leader Yair Golan was reported during the day. According to his party, a suspected attempted stabbing attack was foiled during an event in Tel Aviv.
Who will govern Israel?
The answer may not come tonight. Even if exit polls confirm Netanyahu's loss of a majority, that does not mean he is automatically removed from power.
The President of Israel will hold consultations with parliamentary parties and will entrust the formation of the government to the candidate he believes has the greatest chance of securing a majority.
If none of the candidates manages to unite 61 MPs, the country could face lengthy negotiations, political deadlock or even another election.
Thus, the paradox of the Israeli election is that Netanyahu may lose his majority, the opposition may gain ground, but neither party will be able to govern. Voters will decide on the new parliament today, but the battle for power could continue for many weeks after the polls close.
