“The end of humanity cannot be predicted by date, but a trajectory towards self-destruction is the most likely,” says Dr. Luke Kemp of the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge. In his new book Goliath's Curse, which took him seven years to write, Kemp analyses the rise and fall of over 400 human societies over 5,000 years.
He concludes that people are naturally equal, but societies are being destroyed by wealthy, status-hungry elites. Unlike the collapse of previous societies, which often improved the lives of ordinary people, today's collapse would be global and devastating, due to the extreme interconnectedness of modern civilization, the climate crisis, nuclear weapons, artificial intelligence, and irresponsible corporations.
Kemp avoids the term civilization itself, which he sees as propaganda for ruling elites. Instead, he uses the term Goliath to describe empires and kingdoms that are violent, patriarchal, and built on domination: state over citizen, rich over poor, man over woman, master over slave.
He identifies three “Goliath fuels”: (1) grain, which can be controlled and stored, becoming the basis for taxation and wealth accumulation; (2) weapons that are concentrated in the hands of a few; and (3) land “caged” by natural barriers, which prevent populations from fleeing tyrants – as in the case of ancient Egypt.
According to Kemp, the stories of Goliaths are stories of organized crime: groups that gain monopolies through violence. But all Goliaths are cursed by inequality: it makes a society more fragile in the face of disease, war, environmental degradation, and poor decision-making by corrupt elites.
He says that major historical declines – from the Roman Empire to the Han dynasty in China – are always preceded by extreme increases in inequality. After the fall of Rome, people returned to agriculture and became taller and healthier, he says.
But today, the collapse would be global and irreversible. We can't go back to farming or fruit picking—we're too specialized and dependent on a planetary system. And unlike the swords of old, we now have nuclear weapons, deadly AI, and dangers designed by corporations and powerful elites.
Kemp says today's leaders are the living embodiment of the dark triad: Trump as a narcissist, Putin as a cold psychopath, and Xi Jinping as a Machiavellian manipulator. Just like algorithms and corporations amplify the worst traits of human nature.
But there is a way out. “Don’t act like an idiot” is one of Kemp’s basic pieces of advice. He proposes building truly democratic societies, through citizen assemblies and juries supported by technology. More democratic societies, he says, are more resilient to crises.
There should also be a wealth cap – he suggests $10 million – to curb the capture of the political system by the super-rich. “Why should we allow a minority to be held accountable through wealth at the expense of the planet?”
Kemp responds to critics who accuse him of leftist ideology: “Democracy is not a monopoly of the left. Holding corporations accountable for the harm they cause is not ideology – it’s economic honesty.”
He closes with a message for individuals: “The decline is not caused only by structures, but by the choices we make. If you want to save the world, the first step is not to destroy it. So: don’t be a jerk.”
The book "Goliath's Curse" by Luke Kemp was published on July 31 by Viking Penguin in the UK.
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