A new scientific study raises concerns that global warming caused by the burning of fossil fuels is intensifying the El Nino phenomenon, making it stronger and more unpredictable.
El Nino is a natural climate phenomenon that typically occurs every two to seven years, when water temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean increase significantly. This change causes a series of atmospheric consequences that can affect the weather in many regions of the world.
The study, led by Julia Cole, a climate researcher at the University of Michigan, and published in the journal Science, suggests that global warming and El Nino may be influencing each other. While El Nino contributes to rising global temperatures, warming caused by human activity appears to be amplifying the intensity of the phenomenon itself.
"We are seeing a trend towards stronger El Niños and what we are experiencing now is consistent with this trend," said Cole, emphasizing that the phenomenon is behaving differently compared to the pre-industrial period.
To analyze the changes in El Niño over the centuries, researchers examined ancient corals from the Galapagos Islands, some of which date back about 1,000 years. The chemical composition of the corals allowed scientists to reconstruct sea surface temperatures and study how the phenomenon has changed over time.
According to the study results, El Niño variability has increased by about 37% compared to the pre-industrial period. The change has been particularly noticeable over the past four decades, a period during which some of the most powerful episodes of the phenomenon have been recorded.
Strong El Niños have also been associated with record temperatures around the world, including in 1998, 2016 and 2024. Researchers argue that the increased intensity and variability of recent episodes cannot be explained solely by natural climate variations.
The consequences can vary depending on the region. In parts of South America and the southern United States, El Nino can bring heavy rainfall and flooding, while in India it can weaken or shorten the monsoon season.
On the other hand, Indonesia and Australia typically face drier conditions during El Niño episodes, increasing the risk of droughts and fires.
Another major concern is related to food security. A strong El Niño episode could cause significant damage to agricultural production in different areas of the world, increasing the risk of famine and humanitarian crises.
Scientists are calling on countries to better prepare for these changes through food reserves, climate adaptation measures and strengthening disaster response systems.
However, according to researchers, the most important long-term measure remains reducing the use of fossil fuels and reducing emissions, with the aim of limiting global warming.
